HOW ARE LATINOS LOOKING AT THIS ELECTION?
Statewide Message Poll Findings
The primary power of this survey is the large sample (n=1000) that allowed for more sophisticated analysis regarding internal variation within the Hispanic population in Colorado. We learned from the Landscape Analysis that the Hispanic community is not monolithic, with important, yet often overlooked points of diversity that have important implications for mobilization strategies. This survey provides the unique opportunity to dive deep into the internal variation to explore how policy attitudes and enthusiasm toward civic engagement, responses to messages, and perceptions of potential messengers vary across key demographic factors. Below, we draw from this rich data an example focused on Latinas to emphasize how this new knowledge will yield more powerful modeling scores than anything available to date in Colorado or anywhere else for that matter.
We learned from our first survey that there is a significant gender gap in enthusiasm, with Latinas being less motivated to vote in 2016 than Latino males. The Messages/Messengers Poll provides some additional insights to help understand the relationship between gender and enthusiasm. For example, we find in this poll that Latino men are more likely to think of themselves as “political junkies” who always follow political news (31%) relative to Latinas (17%). Similarly, we find that Latinas are also less likely (41%) to be following news about the 2016 election “very closely” than Latino males (50%). More importantly, this poll identifies specific strategies to address this underlying difference in enthusiasm and information levels:
- Among the many messages that were tested in this survey, the frame that reminds registered voters of how seamless the voting process is in Colorado, with a mail ballot being sent to their home that they can either drop off on election day or mailed back in is identified as convincing among 90% of Latinas in Colorado. This is important, as this message addresses the low knowledge levels of the voting process in Colorado as well as enthusiasm to vote simultaneously. Among the many messengers we tested in this poll, we see that “community organizations” are one of the most trusted messengers for Latinos in Colorado. However, community organizations are particularly powerful among Latinas, with 76% of Latinas in the sample indicating that if a community organization that works on behalf of Latinos supported a voter outreach campaign this would make them more likely to vote in 2016.
- The survey has an expanded set of demographic measures to take advantage of the large sample and allow for a much clearer understanding of the Hispanic community in Colorado. When we isolate the Latina population in Colorado, we see that while the majority of Latinas trace their ancestry to Mexico (55%), a large percentage (21%) indicate their ancestry is Spanish. Furthermore, Latinas are more likely to have parents and grandparents born in the United States relative to other countries. Finally, Latinas in Colorado are much more likely to identify as Catholic (64%) relative to Latino males (51%).
Poll Methodology This study was conducted June 2 – June 13 by Latino Decisions in collaboration with the Latino Data Project. The poll included live interviews with 1,000 Latino registered voters in Colorado. The study was conducted by telephone via both landlines and cell-phones. Respondents answered in English or Spanish at their discretion. Results were weighted to known population characteristics using the Current Population Survey. The nominal margins-of-error for the poll is 3.1%.